Martinsville

[SuperD]

First post in NASCAR forum this season

I didn't mess with Daytona (too unpredictable)

Was right on Edwards in Cali

Was right on Edwards in Vegas

Was wrong at Atlanta, didn't see Busch pulling that off

Was right on Burton at Bristol (I was there, and hit very very big on that one, gotta love 26.5 to 1 payouts)

So 3-1 for the season, up a lot of units

I hate Gordon, but this weekend should be his. Hendrick hasn't won a race yet this season and Gordon has always ran well there. He had great finishes at both last year in COT. It would be easy to say Johnson based on last years performances, but that team is struggling for some reason this season.

One could also argue Dale Jr this weekend. He traditionally has always ran well there, and is running well this season with good equipment, that ran well there last year. I don't doubt he'll get a top 3. But if you avoid looking at points for the season, and look at average running position, it's hard to take Gordon over Junior this weekend.

To recap, my #1 pick is Gordon, #2 pick Junior at Martinsville this weekend. BOL

 

[MikeB]

Nice picks. Betus offers top 3 finishers. I have had some luck this year with those. I think that at this track, you are right with taking veterans. This seems to be more nasty to new racers than even Bristol for some reason.

I would also look for some of the head to head match-ups for this track as well.

GL with your plays, and BTW, very nice hit on Burton.

 

[SuperD]

Thanks, I appreciate it.

As tight as the turns are at this track and as much as brakes come into play/concern, veterans know how to pace themselves and save equipment for the end. Kids like Kyle Busch could lead quite a few laps at places like this over-driving there equipment, but most likely by race end will have very little left. At these short tracks, it's often the smart guy hanging in the top 3 waiting for the end that pulls it off. Gordon, Junior and Burton are three that are good for that, we saw Burton do it at Bristol.

Head to head matches can be fun, and sometimes tricky. You really want to carefully examine practice speeds, they often put teammates against each other (like Burton vs Harvick, Gordon vs Johnson). Usually most of the lines are difficult to guess, but there is usually one or two "give-me's" in my opinion. Be picky, be selective, and it's not hard to come out ahead. Try to guess too many and odds work in their favor, not our's. Anything can happen at shorttracks, wrecks and part failures especially.

BOL this weekend.

Nice picks. Betus offers top 3 finishers. I have had some luck this year with those. I think that at this track, you are right with taking veterans. This seems to be more nasty to new racers than even Bristol for some reason.

I would also look for some of the head to head match-ups for this track as well.

GL with your plays, and BTW, very nice hit on Burton.

 

[MikeB]

To finish in the top 3, here are a couple of payouts being offered;

Jeff Gordon pays 5/4

Dale Earnhardt Jr. pays 11/4

I agree with what you say about Kyle Busch (I was saying that last week), but something tells me to just leave him alone this week. He probably won't have a happy medium race, but in case your wondering, his top 3 finish pays out at 2/1.

GL on Sunday.

 

[SuperD]

I must say 11/4 for Junior is nice. He's ran so well there in the past and is finally in good Hendrick equipment which is proven at this track. 2nd 3rd and 5th last 3 finishes this season. Bristol would have been a much better finish or win had they pit at the end like Junior wanted to and his crew chief didn't want to. I'd be shocked if he didn't finish top 3, either and off-weekend for the team or wreck/part failure. I'd give him an 80% chance to finish top 3.

One thing that's hard to figure is Gibbs cars. Stewart always runs well there, and never rule Hamlin out at a home track. Hamlin is one of the top short track drivers, he may have won last weekend had they not had a fuel pickup problem. Gibbs running well with all that Toyota money. I still say it's Hendrick's turn though after not winning yet. Everyone talking about "why aren't they winning....." You know the guys back at the shop are working twice as hard as ever to get a car in victory lane.

BOL

To finish in the top 3, here are a couple of payouts being offered;

Jeff Gordon pays 5/4

Dale Earnhardt Jr. pays 11/4

I agree with what you say about Kyle Busch (I was saying that last week), but something tells me to just leave him alone this week. He probably won't have a happy medium race, but in case your wondering, his top 3 finish pays out at 2/1.

GL on Sunday.

 

[SuperD]

After the 1st practice and part of qualifying I'd say Gordon has to be the favorite and I'd put Hamiln & Johnson right there in second.

Junior's car was stout in practice but he didn't qualify that well, got the car onto the curve and messed his lap up. His car wasn't better than Johnson or Gordon and he hasn't qualified better so I'm not taking him to win it. Probably a solid top 3 / top 5 though.

BOL

 

[Maxx40]

what exactly are your final plays and what odds did you get?

good luck today.

 

[SuperD]

I took:
Gordon 200 to win 870
Johnson 50 to win 292.50
Hamlin 50 to win 292.50

300 investment Hamlin won so down 7.50

If the race had been 2 laps longer Gordon would have passed Hamlin and I would have been up a lot

I'll take it though

what exactly are your final plays and what odds did you get?

good luck today.